Where is AI Taking Us?

The launch of AI into the mainstream is an event more significant than China entering the WTO World Trade Organization. China's entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001 was a significant event in global economic history. It marked a major shift in the global economic order and brought China fully into the global trading system. The importance of China's entry into the WTO can be seen in several ways. It increased market access. China's entry into the WTO meant that it had to open up its markets to foreign goods and services, thereby increasing market access for foreign companies. This helped to expand global trade and investment, benefiting both China and other countries. It increased economic growth. Since joining the WTO, China's economy has grown at an average rate of over 10% per year. This growth has been driven by increased exports and foreign investment, which has created jobs and lifted millions of people out of poverty. It has accelerated globalization. China's entry into the WTO marked a turning point in the globalization of the world economy. With the world's most populous country fully integrated into the global trading system, the benefits of globalization were spread more widely. Overall, China's entry into the WTO was a landmark event that had a significant impact on the global economy. It helped to promote trade liberalization, expand market access, and stimulate economic growth, making it one of the most important events in recent economic history. In essence, it scaled manufacturing. AI scales ideas and information flow.

So where are we on AI? It is the fastest-adopted technology in the world. It went from zero to 100 million users in a month. It took Facebook 4.5 years. It took Instagram 2.5 years. Tiktok 9 months. There are three major players in space. Open AI which basically is Microsoft with ChatGPT. Google is launching Bard and Amazon with Code Whisperer which is free for all individual users through AWS. The fourth player is Stability AI which is the company behind Stable Diffusion which is a deep-learning text-to-image model used to generate detailed images based on text prompts.

One-third of Amazon's workforce is robots and they are 4 times more productive than humans. AI is also disrupting jobs that we did not think would be disrupted. For example, model agencies where you can get an AI model. Most people think of models prancing down the catwalk. That is only a small part of it - the larger part are photos and videos which can now be generated with AI and based on very specific qualities. Fashion brands including Levi's are having custom AI models created and listening to all the benefits. In a typical photo shoot, if you have nine products it is conceivable you need to shoot nine models for every single product that is sold. That means hiring nine models, photographers, hair stylists, and make-up artists. AI-generated images do not require any of these things which means that brands can cut costs they would spend on set by using fake avatars.

AI is a virus and it is unstoppable. Think of all the advantages that it has over humans. Firstly they can greatly reduce human error and work at almost 100 percent accuracy. It works 24x7 while most humans are only productive for 3 to 4 hours per day. Given how distracted we are these days, it is possible that this number is too generous. AI can work endlessly and without breaks. They can think faster than humans and can achieve the elusive art of multitasking. They can handle tedious repetitive jobs. They are unbiased. While humans are driven by emotions and biases, AI is not. It has no prejudice and is highly practical and rational in its approach. It can perform repetitive jobs without the risk of getting bored. For example, in banks, it is common to see multiple document checks to obtain a loan. This can easily be performed by AI. It can also perform better under pressure and stress. It can be used effectively in any type of natural or man-made calamity, whether it be going to Mars, defusing a bomb, exploring the deepest regions of the ocean, or mining for oil. It can make decisions quicker than humans by gathering more information and being able to process that into quicker and more accurate decisions to prevent costly errors or loss of lives.

To understand how quickly AI has been adopted in the programming space, consider the fact that as of March 2023, 41% of all code generated on Github is AI-generated. As of January 2023, GitHub reported having over 100 million developers and more than 372 million repositories, including at least 28 million public repositories. It is the largest source code host as of November 2021.

How does this extrapolate? Experts are talking about computers being 1000 times smarter than humans. Someone is defined as intellectually challenged if they have an IQ of 70. Einstein had an IQ of 160 which is slightly more than double. Think for a second about all the things Einstein gave us. Now try and get your mind around something that is not twice as smart, but 1000 times as smart and it blows your mind. In order to understand what it means to be 1000 times more intelligent, you need to think of the difference between an ant and Einstein! In other words, you need to think of something that is a different species.

Now we need to define the term singularity. For this, I went to Chat GBT and it gave me this response: singularity is often associated with the development of a super-intelligent AI, which is an AI system that is capable of recursive self-improvement. This is where a system or entity improves itself through a feedback loop of self-evaluation and modification. This could lead to a range of outcomes including the emergence of a utopian society in which humans and machines work together harmoniously or a dystopian scenario where AI takes over and humans are marginalized or even destroyed.

Another way to think of singularity is where machines and humans emerge, and we are closer than we think. Your Apple Watch is measuring your pulse, your sleep patterns, and your stress levels, as are other wearables. Your phone is listening to you and suggesting things you may want to watch, listen to, or buy. Up until now, we have been more than willing to bring machines closely into our lives. If you keep a journal on your phone through an app, it knows most of your secrets. If you sleep with a watch it knows your sleep patterns. You may even keep track of your dreams. You may use your phone to meditate. Your phone has all your email, WhatsApp, and voice correspondence. If you see a therapist, listen to your sessions. It knows your medical history. Your machine knows a lot more than you think. When it knows you better than you know yourself, then you reach a tipping point and you move into dangerous territory.

The first big challenge is the blurring of lines between what is real and what is fake. AI is able to take video images and voice samples of Trump and generate a speech that he never delivered but it will look 100 percent genuine. To show how good AI is becoming, consider these two examples. In April 2023 a German artist named Boris Eldagsen won the creative open category at the Sony World Photography Awards. The eerie black-and-white image shows two women from different generations - the older woman appears to hang on to the younger woman from behind. He rejected the award saying that the image had been generated by making use of AI. In the same month, a single from Drake and the Weeknd went viral on TikTok and started to climb the Spotify charts. It then emerged that the track, entitled "Heart in My Sleeve" had been generated by Ghostwriter977 using AI. This means it is possible for AI to create video conversations between Churchill and Hitler, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, and Joe Biden!

Think about how you are using Chat GBT and how it is enhancing your life and your business. You may be a blogger for your company. You can use Chat GBP to research your blog ideas in ways that are more efficient than Google which refers you to a website that may or may not answer your question. You may be researching a book, writing a speech, or writing a letter to an old school friend and you have no idea where to start. AI can get you started or finished, and allow you to become exponentially more efficient with your time.

There are several ways AI can be used in the trading of financial markets. One is through predictive modeling. It can be used to analyze financial data and identify patterns that can be used to predict future trends. It can be used to develop algorithms that can execute trades automatically based on predefined criteria. In the area of risk management, it can help traders manage their risk exposure. Finally, AI can be used to analyze news articles, social media posts, and other sources of information to identify sentiment and gauge public opinion about assets or markets.

The genie is out of the bottle. For those who are concerned about the apocalyptic outlook for AI, it is too late and if this ends badly, we only have ourselves to blame because we are feeding this. Every time you jump onto Chat GBP and type a prompt, you are giving AI the opportunity to learn from you and understand what is important to us humans. Every prompt is effectively narrowing the gap between machine and man and bringing up one step closer to singularity.

So where does this leave humans? If the world is overrun by super smart computers, that are mega efficient and supremely accurate, and they generate large amounts of wealth for the economy, what will the role of humans be? The worst-case scenario is that these smart computers look down on us, a useless stupid mass of humanity that continues to pollute, fight, bicker, and moan about the world, and decides to obliterate us all. That would not be a smart outcome for the computers, because that act would make them obsolete and therefore without any reason for existence. The counterargument is that you cannot analyze a computer in the same way as you analyze a human. Humans are naturally endowed with a sense of self-preservation. Most of us make decisions predicated on our desire to see the sunrise tomorrow and for this routine to continue for many years to come. Computers, unless trained as such, are not the same, and therefore may not think twice about embarking on a campaign of wholesale extermination.

The first insight we got into the potential evil of AI was back in 2016. CBS reported that “Microsoft shuts down AI chatbot after it turned into a Nazi”. In 2016, Microsoft launched a chatbot named "Tay" on Twitter, which was designed to learn and interact with users in a playful and engaging way. However, within hours of its launch, the chatbot started tweeting racist and sexist comments, which were attributed to the actions of a coordinated group of internet trolls. If you don't buy into the belief that robots can turn rogue, you need to be open to the possibility of evil players using AI for nefarious purposes. We need to talk about genetic modification. What if someone decided he wanted to kill all brown-eyed people on earth and therefore needed to create a virus that would do the job? The computational power is so big and so big that in the same way, AI can do lots of good, it is also a weapon of extreme evil in the wrong hands.

Let's assume this does not take place, and humankind is faced with a crisis of survival and purpose. Firstly, they have no jobs, and secondly, they have no purpose. One solution is a universal basic income (UBI).

The obvious benefit of UBI is that it alleviates poverty in a world plagued with unemployment. The downside is that it is expensive to implement, especially in emerging economies. It also creates a problem of purpose. Humans are born with certain basic needs - the need for shelter, the need to be fed, to procreate, for companionship - the list continues. We, therefore, find a purpose to meet these needs. UBI is a handout. It removes the purpose of working to fulfill some of those needs. If you are no longer required to get up in the morning and go to work, what will you do to fill these free hours? Benjamin Franklin is quoted as saying that idle hands are the devil’s playthings. Humans are not suited to leisure - we need purpose and direction in our lives.

If you are an influencer, or a vlogger, AI will put you out of business pretty soon, because you will be able to create your own videos with AI. Instead of going onto YouTube, and looking for videos by Mr. Beast, you will be able to create your own Mr Beast videos, and you can let your imagination run wild. For example: “Do me a 15-minute Mr. Beast-styled video of someone driving out of an airplane 10,000 feet above the ground in a red Ferrari filled with 100 dollar bills. Make sure the car is equipped with a parachute and as it approaches above a big city, open the windows so the bills come flying out and create a 3-day downpour of money in the city”.

So what is it that humans do well and that humans crave? Social connection and community. Maybe, the purpose of humans in an AI-dominated non-dystopian world will be to build communities of people with similar interests, values, beliefs, and goals.